Campi Flegrei: a preparatory phase for earthquakes identified

A research team from the University of Naples Federico II, the OGS Center for Seismological Research, and the University of Genoa has identified a preparatory phase that precedes major earthquakes in the Campi Flegrei area. The findings, based on the integration of seismic and ground deformation data, were published in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth.

In recent years, Campi Flegrei has experienced a steady increase in both seismic activity and ground uplift. By analysing twenty seismic sequences between 2015 and 2024, researchers observed that each main event is preceded by a synchronised increase in ground deformation (bradyseism) and the energy released by microearthquakes. This enabled the team to identify a key parameter, residual strain, which describes the balance between deformation and seismic activity.

Using monitoring data from INGV, the group also developed an initial model capable of estimating the potential magnitude of main events a few days in advance. This is an early step: uncertainties remain high, and such tools are not currently suitable for operational civil protection purposes.

The next step will be to expand the analysis with new data and to test the approach on other active volcanic systems, aiming to improve understanding of the processes that precede earthquakes and to contribute to the development of increasingly effective predictive tools.